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Will the Rakhine Region Be Able to Cope with the Effects of Global Climate Change?
Analysis
Border News Agency
Mrauk-U, August 15
The Rakhine coastline in western Myanmar is adorned with white sandy beaches, tall black rocks, and coconut trees swaying in the breeze, creating a scene reminiscent of a natural painting.
Mangrove forests, which resemble vast green canopies floating on deep blue waters, further enhance the beauty and ecological value of the Rakhine coast.
There are 93 inhabited islands and 51 uninhabited islands along the Rakhine coast, totaling 144 islands. Among them, Pharonkar Island, Nantha Island, and Kyeekyun are particularly famous.
The mangrove forests and island woodlands along the Rakhine coast act as natural barriers, shielding the region from the powerful winds, storms, and waves of the Bay of Bengal.
Rakhine's stunning natural beauty makes it famous, but the coastline has been more severely impacted by natural disasters than other areas, largely due to global climate change. These challenges persist, with the Rakhine coast continuing to face significant environmental threats.
Since the military coup in 2021, ongoing armed conflict has completely disrupted the efforts of environmental protection groups, according to local reports.
Why are Mangroves Important?
The mangrove forests along the Rakhine coast are a natural gift, thriving without human intervention. These mangroves provide not only commercial fishing opportunities for coastal residents but also serve as sources of fuel, charcoal, and building materials.
In addition to supporting daily life by providing food, fuel, and medicinal resources, mangroves play a crucial role in protecting human lives from natural disasters such as cyclones and tsunamis.
For instance, when Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar in May 2008, the Domkani forest ring and the Mainmahla Island sanctuary in the Irrawaddy Delta helped many people survive the devastating impact.
On the Rakhine coast, where residents face annual storms, the mangrove forests play a critical role in reducing the impact of these strong winds and tidal waves, naturally protecting lives and livelihoods.
Moreover, it is said that these coastal mangroves can absorb significant amounts of carbon dioxide, helping to mitigate global warming.
Mangroves on the Rakhine Coast
Mangroves thrive along the coasts of tropical and subtropical regions, including over 1,300 miles of Myanmar's coastline, from the Ayeyarwaddy Delta to the Rakhine and Tanintharyi coasts.
According to the 2010 World Mangrove Atlas, Myanmar's mangroves cover 1,242,190 acres, making up 3.3 percent of the global mangrove area. This places Myanmar's mangroves as the third largest in Asia and the seventh largest in the world.
The Rakhine coast, home to over 400,000 acres of mangrove forests, includes the Wun Phai Mangrove Zone in Kyaukphyu District's Rambre Township, established in 1931 and covering 56,600 acres.
In addition, the NLD government had plans to establish community-owned forest plantations in depleted mangrove areas along the Rakhine coast, in line with the Myanmar Forestry Policy of 1995. The Wun Phai mangrove forest is also recognized as the second-largest mangrove area in Southeast Asia.
In the WanFive Mangrove area, you can find dolphin species, rare bird species, and the historically significant Lamu Forest, renowned during the Second World War.
Rambre Island, home to the Wun Phai Mangrove, spans 520 square miles and is situated 70 miles south of Sittwe. However, the once world-famous mangrove forest on Rambre Island is now shrinking due to illegal logging. Locals report that more than half of the forest has been lost, and the large crocodiles that once thrived during WWII are no longer seen.
Additionally, since the 2021 military coup, the Wun Phai Mangrove has suffered from a lack of maintenance, leading to an increase in illegal poaching and logging activities, according to local sources.
Due to unrestrained logging, the mangrove forest is severely damaged, raising concerns among residents that the Kyauk Phyu-Rambre-MaEi road, which traverses the WanFive Mangrove forest, could also suffer damage from waves and wind.
In response to the ineffective protection of the mangroves by authorities, a committee was established on September 29, 2021, comprising mangrove conservationists and local residents. This committee has since been working to curb the illegal production of wood and charcoal from the Wun Phai Mangrove as much as possible.
In Rakhine, the destruction of mangrove forests is attributed to activities such as the excavation of aquaculture ponds, the establishment of salt fields, the expansion of agricultural land, and the cutting down of trees for charcoal production. Although over 400,000 acres of mangrove forests remain, many conservationists report significant deforestation.
Experts and researchers highlight that the use of chainsaws for charcoal and brick production, combined with daily logging, has accelerated the degradation of these crucial mangrove forests.
Experts point out that the decline in the number of mangrove trees in Myanmar is due to a combination of adverse weather conditions and reckless clearing by people.
The Rakhine coast, which is experiencing the effects of global climate change
Myanmar is among the countries most impacted by global climate change. Within Myanmar, the Rakhine, Tanintharyi, and Ayeyarwaddy Delta regions are particularly susceptible to storms, while the central region faces drought, and the northern part experiences flooding.
The coastal region of Rakhine is especially vulnerable, facing annual storms that are influenced directly or indirectly by weather patterns in the Bay of Bengal.
Before the year 2000, storms affected the Rakhine coast approximately once every three years. However, in recent years, the region has been experiencing storms annually.
According to a book on Myanmar's natural disasters published by the Asian Regional Disaster Preparedness Center in June 2020, there were 1,248 storms in the Bay of Bengal from 1877 to 2005, with 80 impacting the Myanmar coast. Among the most devastating were the Kyauk Phyu storm in April 1936, which killed about 1,000 people, and the Sittwe storm in May 1968, which, with wind speeds of 80 to 100 miles per hour, claimed 1,037 lives.
Following the major storms of the early 20th century, the Rakhine coast continued to face severe weather events. In May 2004, the Sittwe-Myaybon typhoon caused 228 fatalities with winds reaching 105 mph. Typhoon Akash, which struck near Sittwe in May 2007, killed 291 people with winds of 80 mph. The Giri storm in October 2010, with winds of 120 mph, resulted in 45 deaths.
The most recent and strongest storm, Cyclone Mocha, hit in May 2023 with winds of 137 mph, causing 148 deaths, marking it as the most powerful storm in Myanmar's history.
The Rakhine coast, frequently battered by such cyclones, is acutely affected by climate change, highlighting its vulnerability to increasingly severe weather patterns.
Projects that have been put on the loose
The Rakhine coast experiences a monsoon climate with high rainfall and moderate temperatures, though May is the hottest month and January is the coldest. Annual storms from the Bay of Bengal frequently cause home destruction and flooding.
Notable heavy rain events have impacted Rakhine State in 2014, 2016, and 2017, with recent heavy rains and floods occurring in early August 2024. While storms are common during the rainy and late rainy months, they can also occur in the middle of the rainy season.
Heavy rains in high-altitude areas can lead to flooding in low-lying regions, exacerbated by cyclones, high tides, and river floods.
In Rakhine, 46.64% of the area is covered by forest, totaling approximately 2,130,187 acres. Despite this, population growth and encroachment have resulted in the destruction of about 55,512.83 acres within 38 forest reserve areas.
The Rakhine State Natural Disaster Management Work Plan, approved in September 2019, acknowledges that environmental conditions across townships are impacted in various ways. While efforts have been made to plant and maintain mangroves to mitigate landslides, the absence of designated forest reserve areas has led to inadequate protection against natural disasters.
The situation has created a financial burden on the government, which must allocate resources for both environmental protection and managing natural disasters exacerbated by climate change. Effective warnings and guidance from influential organizations and trusted social groups are also crucial in addressing these challenges.
Environmental activists note that environmental protection has become a lower priority for people grappling with the current political situation. The natural disaster management plans developed under the previous government have also fallen into disarray.
In response, influential organizations, community leaders, and civil society groups are now focusing on engaging with the public to provide critical services such as information dissemination, evacuation, relocation, rescue operations, and humanitarian assistance.
If there is a storm
On December 18, 2023, UNOCHA released a statement warning that 2024 is poised to be a year of heightened danger due to the worsening humanitarian crises that began on February 1, 2021, with the military coup.
The coup has intensified nationwide revolutionary conflict, leading to widespread crackdowns by the military. Environmental activists are reportedly fleeing the country, being arrested, or going into hiding, resulting in a significant lack of social assistance, relief, and environmental protection efforts.
According to UNDP, Rakhine is one of the most affected areas in Myanmar, with a high population density and significant political conflict. The region has a history of disaster risk and low resilience to natural disasters.
Criticism has been directed at the Myanmar junta for restricting humanitarian organizations' access to Arakan State due to the unstable political situation. Transportation cuts and internet blockades imposed by the junta have further complicated information gathering.
The restrictions and blockades imposed on aid groups by the junta after the military coup have significantly impacted those in need. The lack of effective environmental conservation plans has exacerbated the suffering of people in affected areas.
The impact of Cyclone Mocha in 2023 serves as a stark example of these challenges.
On May 14, 2023, Cyclone Mocha struck with wind speeds of 137 mph, resulting in 148 fatalities and causing damage estimated at 522 billion kyats.
Three days later, on May 17, 2023, the UN Humanitarian Office (OCHA) reported that the cyclone affected 5.2 million people, with 3.2 million in need of humanitarian emergency assistance in Northern Rakhine.
The Myanmar junta obstructed international organizations and UN relief efforts in the cyclone-affected areas. Relief work was severely restricted, access to information was curtailed, and the junta reportedly exploited the disaster for its own interests.
Since Cyclone Mocha, the crises have escalated, including severe food shortages, a strained health system, and disruptions to the education system. According to the UNOCHA Myanmar Humanitarian Needs and Response Project in December 2023, the situation has worsened due to increased displacement and the ongoing fear among the population.
The rapid destruction of mangroves, local conflicts, and inadequate environmental protection measures are expected to exacerbate the impact of climate change, leaving local communities increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters.
Analysts are concerned that a cyclone hitting the Arakan region, already beset by armed conflict, could result in a severe humanitarian crisis. The Arakan Army (AA) has seized control of most towns in the region, leaving only a few, including the state capital, under Myanmar junta control.
While it is unclear whether the Arakan Army (AA) has specific environmental protection policies, there has been a recent statement prohibiting the capture and killing of rare wild animals.
In the event of natural disasters such as storms or floods, the Arakan Army (AA) has been observed conducting emergency relief efforts and has established a relief committee.
For the Arakan region to effectively withstand the adverse effects of global climate change, environmental activists argue that the Arakan Army (AA) must not only control and manage the region but also develop comprehensive plans to address and mitigate climate change impacts.